2015 London Marathon Women's Race - Post Race Writeup

2015 Virgin Money London Marathon - The Women's Race
by MarathonGuide.com

Desire for a Fast Race + Pacing
More than any other marathon, the London Marathon seeks fast times in its men's and women's races. This is self-evident in the prize structures where the top runners expect to earn more from the time bonus than they will earn from prize for the finish place that they achieve. In addition, the race provides pacers to help and encourage the runners to reach certain world-claass standard. Since Naoko Takahashi became the first woman to better 2:20 for the marathon, that mark has become the standard of excellence for women - and a time under 2:20 has only been achieved 27 times by only 19 women (seven of whom are still running marathons). At London, a sub-2:20 finish provides any woman with a $100,000 bonus, eclipsing even the $55,000 award for finishing first - a good incentive.

The Pacing / The Start
Pacers (also known as rabbits) are used to help the athletes run even splits for the first half or two-thirds of a marathon. The pace at which those rabbits are to run is decided on the day before the race at the technical meeting based on the desires of the athletes in the race. For 2015, we were told the rabbits would aim to cross the halfway point in under 69:30 - putting the runners on pace to run a sub-2:20 marathon. In some years, no women were capable of running sub-2:20 but the rabbits were set at that speed and most of the women trying to keep up later dropped out or slowed...it was too fast. At the 2015 London Marathon, however, four of the seven contemporary women marathoners who had ever run sub-2:20 were in the race, so the field would be up for another sub-2:20 finish.

To cross halfway in 1:09:30, runners should average a 5:18 pace. The first mile of the 2015 London Marathon was run at 5:38 - slow. The next two miles were on pace and the two pacers with 9 women behind in a pack ran through 5K in 0:16:53. Perhaps recognizing that the pace was slower than it should have been, Asefelech Mergia - one of the women who has run sub-2:20 in the past - seemed to be pushing the pacers to run faster; and they did pick it up. However, even as the pacers picked up the pace, the rest of the pack would not move with them and by 10K (pacers in 33:17) the competitors were 5 seconds behind the pacers; and by 15K (pacers in 50:41/on track for 2:22:30), the competitors were running thirteen seconds behind - effectively ignoring the pacers. Those watching the race on television are used to noticing the pacers, dressed in black striped uniforms, leading the other runners, but for 2015 the pacers were nowhere to be seen - they were too far up the road. The pacers slowed to allow the real competitors to catch them, but as they slowed so did the competitors. By 25K, the pacers were 13 seconds ahead of the main pack while the next pacer and four women with her aiming for a 2:24 finish had caught the main pack - all were running toward a 2:24 finsh.

To say this was a strange race would be an understatement. The fastest women in the world were running well below their capabilities. They were ignoring the pacers and prior-agreed pacing and also ignoring the opportunity to shoot for a $100,000 time bonus (ultimately, the top runners received $15,000 time bonuses and $85,000 discount on what they could earn); and the second group of women had caught the first. To make it weirder still, with the pace so slow it fell to Ana Dulce Felix who was in the second pack to take the lead. Ranking twelfth by personal best among the women in the race, Felix' other credentials did not suggest she should be leading the race: a personal best of 2:25:40 from the 2011 New York City Marathon, an 8th place finish of 2:26:46 at the 2014 London Marathon and a most recent marathon finish of 2:35:33 at the 2014 New York City Marathon.

Passing through 35K in 1:59:58, the race was on target for a 2:24:30 finish and nine women were still in the lead group. It was no surprise that two of the four women who were in the second pack aiming for 2:24 were running with the leaders - those two being Felix and Rkia El Moukim. What was a surprise was that Edna Kiplagat, the 2014 champion and 2011/2012/2013 runner-up who had run the London course in 2:21:32 in each of her previous four outings, had fallen off the pace.

It Becomes a Race
What, arguably, made the 2015 London Marathon interesting to spectators was that eight women were still together 22 miles into the race. What was less interesting was thatt the pace was slow for London. Eventually, one of the athletes would have to make a move and the woman who initiated the surge was Tirfi Tsegaye. With the surge, the race came down to four women: Tsegaye, Mary Keitany, Aseelefech Mergia and Tigist Tufa.

Tsegaye put in another seurge and only Tufa could stay with her. Tsegaye looked back and seemed worried and surprised that Tufa was still with her; while Tufa looked smooth and strong. Into the 24th mile, Tufa surged herself and ran the fastest mile of the day - 5:05 - to break away and easily continue on to the win. Behind, Keitany and Mergia had caught up to Tsegaye and the race for the second and third podium positions was materializing.

At the end the positions settled: Tufa the winner in 2:23:22, Keitany second in 2:23:40, Tsegaye one second further back in third in 2:23:41 and Aselefech Mergia relegated to fourth in 2:23:53. Ultimately, a race that should have been one of the fastest in London history, was the slowest since 2008 and second slowest since 2001. The women at the front were well off their personal bests. The second group, however, resultsed in new personal bests for Ana Dulce Felix, Volha Mauronak, Rkia El Moukim, Iwona Lewandowska and Diane Nukuri.

Top Finishers:
1. Tigist Tufa (ETH) 2:23:22 - $70,000 ($55,000 + $15,000)
2. Mary Keitany (KEN) 2:23:40 - $45,000 ($30,000 + $15,000)
3. Tirfi Tsegaye (ETH) 2:23:41 - $37,500 ($22,500 + $15,000)
4. Aselefech Mergia (ETH) 2:23:53 - $30,000 ($15,000 + $15,000)
5. Florence Kiplagat (KEN) 2:24:15 - $20,000 ($10,000 + $10,000)
6. Jemima Sumgong (KEN) 2:24:23 - $17,500 ($7,500 + $10,000)
7. Priscah Jeptoo (KEN) 2:25:01 - $10,000 ($5,000 + $5,000)
8. Ana Dulce Felix (POR) 2:25:15 - $9,000 ($4,000 + $5,000)
9. Volha Mazuronak (BLR) 2:25:36 - $8,000 ($3,000 + $5,000)
10. Rkia El Moukim (MAR) 2:26:33 - $5,000 ($2,000 + $3,000)
11. Edna Kiplagat (KEN) 2:27:16 - $2,500 ($1,500 + $1,000)
12. Iwona Lewandowska (POL) 2:27:47 - $2,000 ($1,000 + $1,000)
13. Diane Nukuri (BDI) 2:27:50 - $1,000 ($0 + $1,000)