2008 ING New York City Marathon - Preview

New York City Marathon Preview 2008
By MarathonGuide.com Staff

Additional Articles/Topics From the New York Road Runners 2008 ING New York City Marathon Press Releases From the General Press 2008 ING New York City Marathon News Articles

On Sunday, November 2, 2008 an outstanding field of elite runners will compete in the 2008 New York City Marathon. Both the men's and women's fields are strong and there is significant prize money at stake, both the $600,000 offered by the New York Road Runners and an additional $500,000 that is still up for grabs as part of the World Marathon Majors Series. For the second year, the New York Road Runners will not employ pacemakers to lead the runners and so it will be up to the runners to decide whether this will be a conservative/slow/tactical race or fast from the start. We'll expect a fast men's race based on the preferences of the runners who will be in the mix. On the women's side, we'll expect Paula Radcliffe to set the pace - if Paula goes for it, the pace will be fast, if Paula starts conservatively, the others will key off of her.

The Men's Race
The men's field features nine men who have run sub 2:09, including three past champions: Marilson Gomes dos Santos (2006, 2:09:58), Paul Tergat (2005, 2:09:30) and Hendrick Ramaala (2004, 2:09:28). Due to the recency of his run at the Beijing Olympics, the defending and two-time champion, Martin Lel, will not return to defend his title which leaves the field open for one of the other competitors to take the crown. We'll go out on a limb, as we like to do, and tell you that the top five finishers will consist of this group: Abderrahim Goumri, Abel Kirui, Paul Tergat, Abdi Abdirahman and Wilfred Kigen - you pick the order (although we do know it, we won't tell you because we want to win the Toyota Prius in the NYRR's Pick And Drive contest)... The other runners will keep things interesting, so who are these men?

A number of factors suggest that Abderrahim Goumri should be the favorite to win the 2008 contest. In the 2007 race, Goumri was the only runner strong enough to run with eventual winner Martin Lel, and Goumri's 2:09:16 runner-up finish stands as the fastest time run at New York by anyone in the 2008 field. Goumri's other recent performances at London in 2007 (2:07:44) and 2008 (2:05:30) are faster than recent performances by any other runner in the field. The main question mark on Goumri is whether Goumri will be completely recovered from his attempt to win a medal at the 2008 Beijing Olympics.

Abdi Abdirahman will be our sentimental favorite. It has been twenty-six years since an American has won the New York City Marathon and this year Abdirahman will be the USA's best shot. Abdirahman was the favorite to win the Olympic Marathon Trials before the 2008 Olympics, but dropped out at mile 19 with an injury - meaning that Abdirahman has not completed a marathon in more than two years (Chicago 2006, 2:08:56). The reigning USA 10K Champion and winner of the USA Trials 10,000M, Abdirahman has the speed to perform well in New York. And while there are other competitors with stronger marathon credentials, Abdi is never one to lack confidence or doubt that he can beat anyone at any distance - that confidence will serve him well on Marathon Sunday.

At 26, Abel Kirui is the youngest serious competitor in the field and one of the least known to the other runners and general public. Having debuted at the marathon at the 2006 Singapore Marathon (2:15:22), Kirui finished as runner-up (in 2:06:51) to Haile Gebresalassie's World Record run at the 2007 Berlin Marathon and then finished as the winner of the 2008 Vienna Marathon (2:07:38). Those are solid times and Kirui may end up as the surprise winner or top three finisher.

Wilfred Kigen is, perhaps, the most consistent marathoner in the field and has the speed to be a top finisher at New York. Running two marathons each year, Kigen has not run slower than 2:10:00 since 2004 and has run sub 2:08 in each of his last three marathons, either winning or finishing as runner-up in each case. Most of Kigen's past marathons have been in Germany and he is not as well know in the USA, so his competition may not be ready for whatever he can deliver. We'll pick Kigen as a top 5 or better finisher.

As the oldest runner in the field (39 years) and having not run a marathon in over 1-1/2 years, we would normally rule out previous New York Champion and former world-record holder Paul Tergat, but a 61:33 Half-Marathon one month before New York at the Lisbon Half-Marathon suggests that Tergat still has the strength for a top three or top five finish.

In 2006, Marilson Gomes dos Santos was able to sneak away from the pack and cruise to victory at the ING New York City Marathon. But that year no one in the field knew who dos Santos was, and the Brazilian will not have the opportunity to perform that trick again. Although a past champion, we won't expect dos Santos to finish in the top five.

Hendrick Ramaala has run the New York City Marathon more times (6) than anyone else in the elite field. The 2004 champion and 2005 runner-up surprised us in 2007 by setting the initial pace and splitting the field before ultimately dropping to finish with a strong third place standing in 2:11:25. Without especially strong performances in recent years and with a run at the Beijing Olympic Games, Ramaala is unlikely to finish in the top three, but might surprise us.

Isaac Macharia is the last men's marathoner worth a mention. With a strong 2:07:16 runner-up finish at the 2008 Dubai Marathon, Macharia should be able to keep with the lead pack for most of the race. We'll see how he can finish.

The Women's Race
Four past champions grace the women's field: Paula Radcliffe (2007: 2:23:09, 2004: 2:23:10); Tegla Loroupe (1994: 2:27:37, 1995: 2:28:06); Ludmilla Petrova (2000: 2:25:45); Joyce Chepchumba (2002: 2:25:56). Of that crew, only Radcliffe is capable of winning the 2008 race, but to her add Catherine Ndereba, Gete Wami and Kara Goucher as others capable of taking the win. Yes, that's what we say - the winner will be one of those four and see the next paragraph where we tell you who the winner will be! Top five contenders include these four as well as Lyubov Morgunova, Dire Tune and Alice Timbilil.

And, in her debut at the marathon distance, the winner of the 2008 New York City Marathon is Kara Goucher. Well, we would love Monday's headlines to say that. New York native Kara Goucher wins her debut marathon - sounds good to us. Normally we'd say that would be pretty impossible on a number of accounts: i) Americans don't win the New York City Marathon, ii) debutantes don't win the New York City Marathon, iii) there's no one who could ever beat Paula Radcliffe, Catherine Ndereba and Gete Wami. To that we'll counter that by saying that Goucher's 10,000m track times are second - in this field - only to Paula Radcliffe's. We'll help our readers by comparing Goucher to Deena Kastor and saying that Goucher's 10,000m times are just five seconds off Kastor's best; while Goucher's Half Marathon best is better than Kastor's - wow. Add to that Goucher's victory over Radcliffe at the one meeting at the Great North Run Half Marathon and the fact that Radcliffe had trouble running (but completing) a marathon ten weeks ago... Finally, while we'd expect most debutantes to hit the wall and crash and burn, Goucher is coached by Alberto Salazar - she will be prepared and she will be ready. So, there we have it...

The World Marathon Majors 2007/2008 Series Draws to a Close:
To add one additional element to the 2008 ING New York City Marathon, the results will determine the female champion of the second iteration of the World Marathon Majors series.

The Major Elite Fields and New York Marathon Histories
Below see the past marathon performances (click the name) and past experience at the New York City Marathon (put mouse over the word "History") for the top athletes who will be competing at the ING New York City Marathon.